根据动态模型,评估不同干预措施对杭州登革热疫情的有效性
Ling Xu1, Rongrong Lu2, Haocheng Wu3
1Shangcheng District Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Shangcheng District Health Supervision Institute), Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, 310043, China.
BMC public health
|January 6, 2026
概括
载体控制是最有效的登革热干预措施,显著减少病例和疫情持续时间. 对于城市登革热流行病,建议采用三层战略,将病例隔离,蚊子控制和健康教育结合起来.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 分析了2017年香城区登革热疫情数据.
- 开发了一个用于地区规模分析的动态传输模型.
研究的目的:
- 分析登革热的流行病学特征.
- 量化各种干预措施的有效性.
- 为优化登革热控制策略提供证据.
主要方法:
- 利用来自中国疾病预防和控制信息网络系统的疫情数据.
- 采用了一种SEIAR流行病模型,具有双向宿主-载体传播动态.
- 评估干预措施,包括病例隔离,健康教育和载体控制.
主要成果:
- 如果没有干预,疫情可能持续225天,有8420例病例.
- 媒介控制是最有效的单一干预措施,减少了97%的病例,持续时间降至87天,每天减少5%.
- 联合策略与实际的预防有效性密切相关.
结论:
- 建议为城市登革热控制建立一个三层次的协同预防系统.
- 强调严格的病例隔离,持续的高强度蚊子控制和综合干预.
- 旨在解决单个干预措施的局限性,并将成本降至最低.
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