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选择 设置 尺寸 忽视预测他人的偏好.
Beidi Hu1, Alice Moon2, Eric VanEpps3
1Department of Marketing, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago.
Psychological science
|January 7, 2026
概括
人们低估了选择套装大小如何影响他人的偏好. 这是因为决策时的注意力往往忽略了可用的选项数量,影响了喜欢的预测.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 选择集大小是决策的一个基本方面.
- 更大的选择集增加了选择首选选项的概率.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查个人是否准确地预测选择尺寸对他人的偏好的影响.
- 为了确定潜在低估设置大小效应背后的认知机制.
主要方法:
- 六项预先注册的实验涉及10,092名美国成年人.
- 参与者预测了其他人喜欢在不同的选择尺寸下选择的选项.
- 干预者在预测任务中操纵注意力以设置大小.
主要成果:
- 参与者始终低估了选择集大小对其他人喜欢选择选项的影响.
- 当人们明确注意设置大小时,这种低估值就减少了.
- 通过同时考虑多个集合大小,将决策作为排名,或在预测之前回忆集合大小,对集合大小的关注度得到了增强.
结论:
- 在预测他人的偏好时,个人往往无法充分考虑选择集大小的影响.
- 认知注意力在调节选择集大小的感知影响方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 有针对性的干预可以提高关于选择集大小对偏好的影响的预测的准确性.
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