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Updated: Jan 13, 2026
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确定基于区域的强有力的保护战略,以确保在不确定性条件下提供生态系统服务
Benjamin Black1, Antoine Adde2, Nathan Külling3
1ETH Zürich, Planning of Landscape and Urban Systems (PLUS) Institut für Raumund Landschaftsentwicklung (IRL), HIL H 52.1, Stefano-Franscini-Platz 5, Zürich, 8093, Switzerland.
Journal of environmental management
|January 7, 2026
概括
将场景建模与空间规划相结合,对于有效保护生物多样性至关重要. 战略必须适应未来的环境变化和各种保护目标,以确保提供强大的生态系统服务.
科学领域:
- 保护计划中的保护计划.
- 生物多样性保护 生物多样性保护
- 生态系统服务生态系统服务
背景情况:
- 目前以区域为基础的保护规划不足以解决社会环境驱动因素和保护目标的不确定性.
- 未来的环境退化和不断变化的保护优先事项对生物多样性保护构成重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 整合空间保护优先级与基于场景的模拟建模.
- 在环境变化和保护目标的未来不确定性下,系统地评估保护战略.
主要方法:
- 在瑞士 (2020-2060年) 模拟的保护区扩张策略,使用全因数设计.
- 测试了气候变化,土地利用变化和保护优先事项的五种场景.
- 通过对跨越空间和时间的十个生态系统服务 (ES) 的影响来评估战略的稳定性.
主要成果:
- 在替代期货中观察到ES提供的实质性变化和服务交付的明显空间转移.
- 高ES强度地区和当前生态价值优先地区之间存在有限的空间重叠.
- 一个强大的战略包括迅速将保护范围扩大到30%的覆盖面,优先考虑人类主导的景观中的小区域,并将保护与恢复结合起来.
结论:
- 保护规划必须明确考虑未来的不确定性,以确保有效地保护生物多样性和提供生态系统服务.
- 最佳的保护策略需要考虑社会偏好不同生态系统服务之间的权衡.
- 这项研究为基于不确定性的规划提供了方法指导,并为瑞士实现30x30目标提供了建议.
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