在贝叶斯纵向建模中同时检测逐渐和突然的结构变化,使用和模型适合度量
Yanling Li1,2, Xiaoyue Xiong1, Zita Oravecz1,3
1Department of Human Development and Family Studies, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA.
The British journal of mathematical and statistical psychology
|January 7, 2026
概括
本研究引入了贝叶斯式调节切换 (RS) 模型,以检测动态性质的逐渐和突然变化. 新的框架有效地确定了干预后心理健康 (PWB) 的重大转变.
科学领域:
- 统计 统计 统计 统计
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 行为科学 行为科学
背景情况:
- 由于累积的影响和急性事件,个人在动态特性中表现出渐进和突然的变化.
- 现有的统计框架对于同时检测和表示这些独特的变化模式的能力有限.
- 准确的建模对于理解心理福祉 (PWB) 动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 提出贝叶斯式调节 (RS) 建模框架,用于同时检测和表示渐进和突然变化.
- 为测试逐渐和突然变化的假设而调整度测量.
- 调查拟议框架在分析心理福祉 (PWB) 动态方面的有效性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个贝叶斯式调节 (RS) 建模框架.
- 从频率主义框架中调整了一个度量.
- 进行了蒙特卡洛模拟研究,并将模型应用于早期成年人PWB的干预研究数据.
主要成果:
- 和信息标准措施 (例如,贝叶斯信息标准) 的结合有效地选择了最适合的模型在不同的突然变化大小.
- 较低的值有助于选择具有RS特性的纵向模型.
- 在干预后,在一些参与者中观察到PWB动态的个体内变异性中的突然,与饮食方式相关的转变.
结论:
- 拟议的贝叶斯式RS建模框架和度测量有助于同时检测和表示渐进和突然变化.
- 与其他模型选择标准一起使用的测量,为识别真正的突然和渐进变化提供了实际指南.
- 调查结果表明,干预后,PWB动态可能发生突然变化.
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