在能源建模论坛37研究中,美国的生物能源途径净零CO2排放场景
Ronald D Sands1, Liz Wachs2, Patrick Lamers2
1Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C., USA.
Energy and climate change
|January 8, 2026
概括
生物能源的使用对于美国到2050年实现净零二氧化碳排放至关重要,在净零情景下,消费量将翻一番. 消除二氧化碳,包括生物能源与二氧化碳捕获和储存 (BECCS),对于难以减轻的行业至关重要.
科学领域:
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 气候变化缓解减缓 气候变化缓解减缓
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 美国的目标是到2050年实现二氧化碳净零排放,需要在所有行业进行深度脱碳.
- 生物能源是减少排放和去除二氧化碳的关键资源.
研究的目的:
- 评估生物能源对美国到2050年净零二氧化碳排放的潜在贡献.
- 在各种缓解情景中分析不同部门的生物能源消耗.
- 评估生物能源在二氧化碳捕获和储存 (BECCS) 和直接空气碳捕获和储存 (DACCS) 中的作用.
主要方法:
- 利用了参与能源建模论坛37项研究的13个建模团队的结果.
- 在参考和净零场景中比较生物能源消耗.
- 分析了BECCS和DACCS之间的相互作用,以消除二氧化碳.
主要成果:
- 预计2050年的平均生物能源消耗在净零场景中预计为7.3 EJ,是参考场景的两倍多.
- 所有的净零场景都需要大量的二氧化碳去除,其中BECCS和DACCS发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 在部署BECCS和DACCS之间存在强烈的反向关系.
- 土地使用,土地使用变化和林业有助于抵消排放.
结论:
- 生物能源是实现到2050年美国净零二氧化碳排放的重要组成部分.
- 消除二氧化碳的技术,特别是BECCS和DACCS,对于减轻难以减排的行业的排放是不可或缺的.
- 场景建模突出了能源技术,碳排放和实现气候目标的经济因素之间的复杂相互作用.
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