自闭症谱系障碍风险预测模型整合生物心理社会因素:系统性审查和分析与多中心验证
Lu Zhang1, Weicong He1, Pujue Huang2
1Department of Pediatrics, Luzhou Maternal and Child Health Hospital (Luzhou Second People's Hospital), Luzhou, China.
Translational pediatrics
|January 8, 2026
概括
这项研究开发了一种生物心理社会风险模型,用于早期识别自闭症谱系障碍 (ASD). 关键预测因素包括不良童年经历,早产和产前暴露,有助于及时干预.
科学领域:
- 发育儿科 发育儿科
- 精神病学是一个精神病学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 早期发现自闭症谱系障碍 (ASD) 对有效干预至关重要.
- 生物心理社会因素在ASD风险中发挥着重要作用.
- 对于早期发现ASD,需要一个经过验证的风险预测模型.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证ASD风险预测模型.
- 将关键的生物心理社会因素纳入模型.
- 为了促进高风险个体的早期识别.
主要方法:
- 对37项元分析和系统性审查 (2010-2023) 的系统性审查.
- 进行元回归分析以确定潜在的ASD风险因素.
- 用LASSO进行多变量逻辑回归,用于在中国队列中进行模型开发和外部验证.
主要成果:
- 确定了四个独立的自闭症风险预测因素:不良童年经历 (ACE),早产,怀孕期间抗抑郁药暴露和围产期抗生素暴露.
- 开发了一个风险预测公式,整合了这些因素.
- 外部验证显示出优异的区分 (AUC=0.78) 和临床效用.
结论:
- 一个新的,基于证据的ASD风险预测模型已经开发出来.
- 该模型有效地整合了用于早期风险识别的关键生物心理社会因素.
- 该工具支持针对有高ASD风险的个体进行有针对性的干预.
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