建筑环境特征与精神分裂症发病率之间的非线性关联和值效应:对健康城市规划的影响
Jian Song1, Peng Li1, Jun Cheng2
1Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui, 230032, China.
SSM - population health
|January 8, 2026
概括
建筑环境通过复杂的,非线性关系显著影响精神分裂症发病率. 城市规划可以通过考虑人口密度和绿色空间访问等因素来减轻风险.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 城市规划与公共卫生
- 精神障碍的空间分析
背景情况:
- 建筑环境是公共卫生干预的关键,可修改的因素.
- 了解建筑环境对精神分裂症发病率的非线性和值影响至关重要,但有限.
- 精神分裂症发病率表现出由环境决定因素影响的复杂空间模式.
研究的目的:
- 研究建筑环境特征与精神分裂症发病率之间的时空关系.
- 确定城市因素对精神分裂症风险的非线性关系,值和相互作用影响.
- 为促进心理健康的城市规划策略提供基于证据的指导.
主要方法:
- 来自中国国家严重精神障碍登记系统的乡镇级精神分裂症发病率数据 (2019-2023) 的分析.
- 使用多个来源的地理数据来导出建筑环境特征.
- 应用普通最小平方 (OLS),地理加权回归 (GWR) 和一个可解释的XGBoost模型与SHAP值用于空间分析和关联建模.
主要成果:
- 精神分裂症发病率的显著空间聚类 (莫兰I = 0.47,P < 0.001) 平均每年发病率为每10万人的13.46.
- SHAP-XGBoost模型表现出优于OLS和GWR的性能,突出了关键预测因素:人口密度,NDVI,距离蓝色空间的距离,街道连接和蓝色空间面积.
- 观察到复杂的非线性关联,包括人口密度的U形关系,风险值约为15,000人/平方公里,以及特征之间的显著相互作用效应.
结论:
- 建筑环境与精神分裂症发病率有显著的非线性关联,得到了强有力的统计证据的支持.
- 确定了值和相互作用效应,为有针对性的城市规划干预提供了可操作的见解.
- 这项研究为开发更健康的城市环境提供了基础,以促进心理健康并降低精神分裂症风险.
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