慢性病负担的全球趋势和预测 糖尿病,高血压和淋巴结膜炎:基于人口的研究
Kidney & blood pressure research
|January 8, 2026
概括
全球慢性病 (CKD) 病例在2021年升至6.737亿,主要是由于2型糖尿病 (T2DM) 和高血压. 预测显示持续增加,强调需要有针对性的干预措施.
科学领域:
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 慢性病 (CKD) 代表着一个重要的全球健康负担,影响了全球的发病率,死亡率和医疗保健系统.
- 了解CKD的趋势和病因对于有效的公共卫生战略和资源配置至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 从1990年到2021年分析CKD流行,发病率和死亡率的全球,区域和国家趋势.
- 调查1型糖尿病 (T1DM),2型糖尿病 (T2DM),高血压和血球腺炎对CKD负担的具体贡献.
- 预测到2045年的未来CKD趋势,并分析与CKD相关的健康不平等.
主要方法:
- 利用了204个国家和地区的2021年全球疾病负担数据.
- 使用流行率,发病率,死亡率,残疾调整寿命年 (DALYs) 和年龄标准化率 (ASR) 评估CKD负担.
- 采用回归和年龄周期队列模型进行时间趋势分析,并检查了区域和社会人口统计水平之间的健康不平等.
主要成果:
- 在2021年,全球CKD患病率为6.737亿,主要由T2DM和高血压驱动.
- T2DM呈现了最高的年龄标准化流行率 (ASPR) 和发病率 (ASIR).
- 虽然最近T1DM和淋巴结核炎CKD的ASPRs下降,但所有四种病因的ASIRs继续上升. T2DM对死亡和DALYs的贡献最大.
- 中等和高SDI地区的CKD负担显著增加,流行率和发病率驱动因素 (例如人口增长,老龄化) 显著区域差异.
- 较富裕的国家在T2DM和高血压相关的CKD方面表现更好,而较贫穷的国家在T1DM和血球炎相关的CKD方面表现更好.
结论:
- 全球CKD负担在1990年至2021年间大幅增加,主要归因于2型糖尿病和高血压.
- 在CKD流行,发病率和死亡率方面存在显著的区域差异,需要定制的公共卫生干预措施.
- 未来的预测表明,与T2DM和高血压相关的CKD的持续增加,强调全球卫生行动的紧迫性.
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