基于机器学习的短期预测COVID-19入院患者使用例行医院患者数据
Martin S Wohlfender1, Judith A Bouman2, Olga Endrich3
1Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Graduate School for Cellular and Biomedical Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Multidisciplinary Center for Infectious Diseases, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Epidemics
|January 8, 2026
概括
XGBoost和废水数据改善了COVID-19住院预测. 这种先进的传染病建模有助于在流行病期间做出公共卫生决策.
科学领域:
- 传染病建模传染病模型
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生监督是对公共卫生的监督.
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19的流行,感染性疾病建模工具的开发加速了.
- 预测模型对于跟踪传播和预测医疗保健资源需求至关重要.
- 准确的短期预测住院人数对于有效的公共卫生反应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较COVID-19入院患者的不同短期预测方法的性能.
- 评估电子健康记录和废水数据在提高预测准确性的有用性.
- 为实时流行病预测确定最佳建模方法.
主要方法:
- 从瑞士伯尔尼六家医院 (2020年2月 - 2023年6月) 的电子健康记录进行了回顾性分析.
- 应用了五种预测方法:最后一次观察转移,线性回归,XGBoost和两个神经网络.
- 采用了以多个切割点和优化的超参数为基础的离开未来的培训方案.
主要成果:
- XGBoost在预测医院入院的情况方面普遍优于其他方法.
- 结合诸如发烧入院和废水病毒度等特征,提高了预测的准确性.
- 该研究系统地比较了使用常规医院数据的各种方法.
结论:
- 先进的预测方法,特别是XGBoost,可以显著提高预测入院患者的准确性.
- 将医院数据与废水监测数据相结合,为实时流行病预测提供了一个有前途的方法.
- 改进的预测支持在传染病爆发期间基于证据的公共卫生决策.
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