植被碳汇分布的驱动机制基于可解释的机器学习和对露天矿山碳捕获的评估
Yulong Geng1, Weihua Guo1, Quanzhi Li1
1School of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing), Beijing, 100083, China.
Environmental research
|January 8, 2026
概括
由于气候和土壤因素,黄河盆地 (YRB) 的植被碳捕获量显著增加. 恢复的矿山作为碳汇,为中国的"双碳"目标提供了大量的封存潜力.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 植被碳捕获对于缓解全球变暖和保持区域碳平衡至关重要.
- 黄河流域对中国的能源发展和生态保护至关重要.
- 在YRB中缺乏对碳捕获驱动因素和露天采矿能力的系统评估.
研究的目的:
- 分析YRB中植被碳捕获的时间趋势.
- 确定空间NEP分布的驱动机制 (气候,土壤,人类活动).
- 量化YRB的露天矿山的碳捕集潜力.
主要方法:
- 森的斜率估计器和曼-肯达尔趋势测试用于时间趋势分析.
- 贝叶斯优化极端梯度提升与沙普利增量解释驱动器分析.
- 缓冲区比较方法用于量化矿山碳捕集潜力.
主要成果:
- 从2001年到2024年,YRB的生态系统净生产率 (NEP) 增加了五倍,中高层生态系统的增长显著.
- 降水,太阳辐射和土壤有机碳是NEP分布的主要驱动因素,总共占58%以上.
- 活跃的矿山是碳来源,而稳定/再生的矿山是碳汇,总潜力为93.57 Gg.
结论:
- 在YRB中植被碳封存显示出积极的趋势,对区域碳平衡至关重要.
- 气候和土壤因素是关键驱动因素,突出了它们在生态管理中的重要性.
- 露天采矿,特别是恢复的采矿,具有显著的碳捕获潜力,有助于生态恢复和"双碳"战略.
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