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在全球陆地保护区内预测人类土地使用压力和自然息地转换风险
Guangdong Li1,2, Zhenbo Wang3,4, Siao Sun5,6
1Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China. ligd@igsnrr.ac.cn.
Nature ecology & evolution
|January 8, 2026
概括
保护区面临着人类土地利用扩张的重大威胁,到2050年可能会影响超过30%的陆地脊椎动物物种. 需要采取紧急行动,保护这些重要的保护区免受息地破坏.
科学领域:
- 生态与保护生物学 生态与保护生物学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地理空间分析是什么
背景情况:
- 昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架旨在保护全球30%的土地,以应对生物多样性丧失.
- 现有的陆地保护区显示了广泛的息地破坏,引发了对未来保护目标的担忧.
- 可预测的息地破坏风险可能严重破坏全球保护工作.
研究的目的:
- 全球评估未来人类土地利用扩张和息地转换在保护区内的风险.
- 根据各种社会经济和气候情景来评估这些风险.
- 确定保护区完整性面临最高风险的地区和场景.
主要方法:
- 使用高分辨率卫星数据集.
- 使用机器学习模型进行预测分析.
- 在四个共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 场景中评估风险.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,人类在保护区内的土地使用量将增加27.50-51.17%.
- 31.03-39.07%的陆地脊椎动物物种可能面临人类在保护区内的土地使用增加.
- 撒哈拉以南非洲,南美洲和东南亚的保护区被确定为特别脆弱的地区.
结论:
- 加快的自然息地转换对保护区和生物多样性目标构成严重威胁.
- 在SSP5-RCP8.5情景中,息地转换的风险是最极端的.
- 确保保护区对未来威胁的抵御能力对于有效的保护至关重要.
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