[基于Biomod2组合建模的气候变化下的花适合息地的预测]
De-Hua Wu1, Chuan-Zhi Kang2, Wan-Heng Meng3
1State Key Laboratory for Quality Ensurance and Sustainable Use of Dao-di Herbs, Resource Center for Chinese Materia Medica, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences Beijing 100700, China Guangdong Pharmaceutical University Guangzhou 510006, China.
概括
人类活动比气候变化更大程度上影响了花的息地. 减少人类干预可以扩大合适的种植面积,这对传统中医 (TCM) 资源保护至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态与保护生物学 生态与保护生物学
- 气候变化影响评估
- 传统中国医学 (TCM) 资源管理
背景情况:
- 越来越多的TCM需求和气候变化威胁到野生药用植物.
- 花保护对TCM的可持续性至关重要.
- 了解环境变化下的息地动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测香的当前和未来分布.
- 评估气候变化和人类活动对其息地的影响.
- 为医用植物资源的保护战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 综合物种分布模型 (SDM).综合物种分布模型.
- 利用了气候,土壤和人类足迹数据.
- 在不同的碳排放场景下预计的分布 (SSP126,SSP585).
主要成果:
- 人类活动是C. indicum分布的主要限制.
- 除了人类干预之外,适合息地增加了19.3%.
- 根据SSP126的情景,息地增加幅度极小;根据SSP585的情景,息地减少和退化风险很大.
结论:
- 人类活动显著影响C. indicum的分布,而不是气候.
- 低碳政策可以减轻药用植物的息地丧失.
- 综合建模支持TCM资源的气候弹性管理.
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