适应性疫苗接种和监测测试策略,用于具有不同菌株动态的传染病
Xilin Zhang1,2, Ozgur M Araz1,2, Zeynep Ertem1,2
1School of System Science and Industrial Engineering, Binghamton University, Binghamton, NY, USA.
Health systems (Basingstoke, England)
|January 9, 2026
概括
这项研究引入了适应性流行病学模型 (SEIR),优化了疫苗接种和测试等干预措施. 将这些策略结合起来,可以提高疫情防控准备和资源配置,以有效控制疫情爆发.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 流行病由于不断变化的菌株和动态条件而带来挑战.
- 当前的模型经常单独评估测试和疫苗接种等干预措施.
- 优化联合干预对于有效的制和资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估测试,疫苗接种和隔离策略的综合影响.
- 优化资源分配,以实现最大的疫情控制效率.
- 为了实时管理疫情爆发,引入一个自适应区间流行病学模型 (SEIR).
主要方法:
- 开发一个自适应的SEIR模型,整合动态疫苗接种可访问性和监测测试.
- 模拟应对实时疫情进展和人口变化的干预策略.
- 基于适应性测试和疫苗接种计划的资源配置优化.
主要成果:
- 疫苗接种有效地减少了感染峰值.
- 适应性测试策略延迟了峰值发生,并减轻了流行病的严重程度.
- 综合模型为疫情准备提供了一个可扩展的框架.
结论:
- 结合疫苗接种和适应性测试,为流行病控制提供了强有力的方法.
- 实时监测和战略资源分配是缓解未来疫情的关键.
- 该模型为决策者在制定预测性流行病控制措施时提供了可操作的见解.
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