替代建模方法在模拟地中海地区夏季作物现象学方面存在显著差异 欧洲欧洲
Giovanni Maria Poggi1, Marco Vignudelli2, Francesca Di Cesare3
1Research Centre for Agriculture and Environment, CREA - Council for Agricultural Research and Economics, Bologna, Italy. giovannimaria.poggi@crea.gov.it.
International journal of biometeorology
|January 9, 2026
概括
精确的植物现象学建模需要考虑热浪. 贝塔分布函数和更简单的方法,如中间切断技术,可以改善地中海欧洲夏季作物生长度日 (GDD) 的计算.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 植物生理学 植物生理学
背景情况:
- 温度变化显著影响植物现象学.
- 传统的增长度日 (GDD) 模型往往无法解释高温的影响,导致不准确的气候影响评估.
- 热浪频率的增加需要改进现象学建模.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较六种不同的度日模型来计算地中海欧洲夏季作物的GDD.
- 评估模型性能,考虑高温对植物发育的影响.
- 确定最准确和最实用的GDD计算方法,用于运营用途.
主要方法:
- 平均方法,单三角方法 (使用水平,垂直和中间切线技术) 和β分布函数的比较.
- 利用了22年的现象学数据,区分"标准"和"温暖"年份.
- 使用平均绝对误差 (MAE),平均误差 (ME),根平均平方误差 (RMSE) 和Diebold-Mariano测试来评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 纳入成熟期间高温的负面影响的模型显著提高了预测准确性.
- 基于生理学的β分布函数模型产生了最好的结果.
- 更简单的方法,如中间切断技术,也显示出显著的改进,并提供了易于使用的方法.
结论:
- 对地中海地区夏季作物的精确现象学建模欧洲必须考虑极端高温事件.
- 贝塔分布函数提供了卓越的准确性,而中间切断技术为操作应用提供了实用和改进的替代方案.
- 改进的GDD计算对于理解和预测气候变化对农业的影响至关重要.
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