对气候对美国整体因素生产率的影响的经济学分析. 乳制品县 乳制品县
Kamil Bora Bolat1,2, Merve Bolat1, Boris E Bravo-Ureta3
1Department of Agricultural Economics, Field Crops Central Research Institute, Ankara 06170, Türkiye.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
|January 10, 2026
概括
奶牛面临热量压力,但技术和管理策略有效地减轻了对生产力的影响. 技术进步推动了增长,而热应激对整体生产率增长的影响最小.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 动物科学动物科学
背景情况:
- 高产的奶牛容易受到热应激,气候变化加剧了这一问题.
- 了解气候变量对乳制品生产率的经济影响对于可持续农业至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化气候变量对奶牛农场生产率的影响.
- 为了分解总因子生产率增长 (TFPG) 并评估热应激的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用一个随机参数随机生产边界模型.
- 分析了美国农业部 (USDA) 从1978年到2022年对179个乳制品县的人口普查数据.
- 分解的总因子生产率增长 (TFPG),以隔离不同因素的影响.
主要成果:
- 技术进步是TFPG的主要驱动因素,每年贡献2.52% .
- 热应力对TFPG的平均影响很小,每年仅减少0.008%.
- 即使在受影响最严重的县,由于热应激导致的生产率损失也没有超过0.08%.
结论:
- 乳制品行业采用冷却系统和改进的管理策略,有效地减轻了热应激导致的生产力损失.
- 技术进步仍然是乳制品生产率增长的主要因素.
- 建议进行进一步的研究,以量化农场适应策略对乳制品生产率的具体影响.
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