导航未知:以自然为基础的解决方案,在深度不确定性下的沿海气候适应
Haye H Geukes1, Eva S Visser2, Elena V Bondarouk3
1Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands.
Journal of environmental management
|January 10, 2026
概括
基于自然的解决方案 (NbS) 提供适应性的沿海适应,但面临着长期的不确定性. 严重的不确定性影响了NbS规划,限制了其有效性,并随着时间的推移增加了投资风险.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 沿海地区的管理
背景情况:
- 沿海适应战略对于应对气候变化影响至关重要.
- 基于自然的解决方案 (NbS) 为传统的硬工程防御提供了多功能替代方案.
- 尽管在不确定性下的潜在好处,但NbS的采用程度有限.
研究的目的:
- 研究深度不确定性如何影响沿海适应性基于自然的解决方案的规划和管理.
- 确定影响国家银行系统采用决策过程的特定不确定性.
- 探索这些不确定性对NbS长期可行性的影响.
主要方法:
- 进行了非结构化和半结构化采访,与荷兰专家在沿海NbS,适应和深度不确定性下决策.
- 将深度不确定性的已识别的主题分类为系统理解,结果概率和结果优先级.
- 分析了深度不确定性和NbS特征之间的相互作用.
主要成果:
- 关键的不确定性包括海平面上升的速度和对洪水风险的政治接受.
- 作为适应性,多功能短期干预措施,NbS显示出前景.
- 长期的NbS潜力受到气候影响,性能,功能冲突和风险接受等不确定性的限制.
结论:
- 虽然NbS的适应性和多功能性在短期内有利,但在长期内引入了不确定性和锁定风险.
- 有效的沿海适应需要整合政治和技术场景规划,以应对NbS的权衡.
- 将不确定的多功能与可预测的防洪平衡,对于有弹性的长期沿海管理至关重要.
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