印度的区域性肺癌负担,长期趋势和时间序列预测:根据年龄,性别和形态学的分析研究
Jinto Edakkalathoor George1,2, Preethi Sara George1, Rekha A Nair1
1Division of Cancer Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Regional Cancer Centre, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India.
The Indian journal of medical research
|January 11, 2026
概括
印度的肺癌发病率显示出显著的区域差异,特别影响南部和东北部地区的男性. 预测显示上升趋势,腺癌变得越来越普遍,特别是在女性中.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 肺癌是全球诊断最多的癌症,也是癌症相关死亡的主要原因.
- 了解肺癌模式的区域差异对于印度有针对性的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估57个印度人口肺癌发病率,死亡率,形态和死亡率与发病率的区域差异.
- 分析时间趋势 (年平均百分比变化:AAPC) 并预测到2030年的肺癌率.
- 调查烟草/酒精使用与肺癌模式之间的相关性.
主要方法:
- 使用年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 和年龄标准化死亡率 (ASMR) 每10^5人口.
- 雇员加入点回归以估计AAPC和自动回归集成移动平均线 (ARIMA) 模型用于预测.
- 分析了形态亚型和与区域烟草和酒精消费数据相关的发病率.
主要成果:
- 印度南部,北部和东北部的男性肺癌发病率较高;斯里纳格的ASIR最高,艾泽尔的ASMR最高.
- 印度东北部,特别是艾泽尔,在女性中显示出最高的比例 (ASIR: 33.7,ASMR: 23.2).
- 腺癌在25年内成为主要的亚型,女性患病率更高 (班加罗尔:56.0%). 预计发病率将上升,Thiruvananthapuram (女性:6.7%) 和Dindigul (男性:4.3%) 的AAPC显著增加.
结论:
- 印度的肺癌负担呈现出显著的区域差异,腺癌显著增加,特别是在女性中.
- 预计的发病率上升需要积极的公共卫生战略.
- 较低的死亡率与发病率表明死亡报告不足,强调需要改进死亡登记系统.
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