暂时去除二氧化碳以抵消甲排放
Frank Venmans1, Wilfried Rickels2, Ben Groom1,3
1Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
概括
甲排放导致短期变暖,与二氧化碳 (CO2) 不同. 暂时的二氧化碳去除可以抵消甲的变暖影响,避免长期的经济转移,并确保更可信的气候政策.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 大气化学 大气化学
背景情况:
- 与二氧化碳 (CO2) 相比,甲 (CH4) 具有强大的短期变暖潜力.
- 温室气体排放及其气候影响的时间动态对于有效的减缓战略至关重要.
- 当前的抵消机制往往忽视了气体之间的变暖效应的不同时间尺度.
研究的目的:
- 评估二氧化碳 (CO2) 暂时去除对弥补甲 (CH4) 排放对气候短期影响的有效性.
- 为了确定平衡1甲的变暖效应所需的临时二氧化碳抵消量.
- 评估时间匹配对时间间福利转移和政策可执行性的影响.
主要方法:
- 对甲与二氧化碳短期温度影响的比较分析.
- 经济建模以评估基于避免的气候损害的等价性.
- 敏感性分析用于评估诸如社会折扣率和未来排放场景等参数的影响.
主要成果:
- 根据避免的经济损失,在30年内需要大约87次临时二氧化碳吸收来抵消1甲.
- 暂时将二氧化碳除去与甲的变暖冲动相匹配,可以最大限度地减少时间间的福利转移.
- 所需的二氧化碳补偿量能够承受有争议的经济和气候参数的变化.
- 对二氧化碳去除项目的短期监测 (20-30年) 比长期要求更可行和可执行.
结论:
- 暂时的二氧化碳去除提供了一个可行的策略,以抵消甲排放造成的短期变暖.
- 这种方法通过减少对有争议的参数的依赖来简化抵消协议.
- 专注于短期,可执行的监测期提高了基于自然的二氧化碳去除项目的可信度和实用性.
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