强化学习驱动的补贴政策对进化疫苗接种动态的影响
Yunxiang Hou1, Yongxin Huang2, Yikang Lu2
1School of Economics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, Dalian 116025, China.
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)
|January 12, 2026
概括
政府的自适应性补贴政策显著影响疫苗接种率. 强化学习模型表明,增加总补贴可以促进疫苗接种,但在固定预算下,单独降低成本是无效的.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 政府补贴政策对于自愿疫苗接种计划至关重要.
- 适应性政策调整会影响疫苗接种率.
- 强化学习为建模政府决策提供了一个框架.
研究的目的:
- 调查政府如何调整补贴政策以影响疫苗接种水平.
- 用强化学习方法建模政府的决策过程.
主要方法:
- 使用了布什-莫斯泰勒模型,一种强化学习框架.
- 将人均治疗费用和人均补贴纳入模型.
- 根据收益 (治疗成本) 和愿望水平 (补贴) 之间的差距进行定义的补贴政策调整.
主要成果:
- 增加总补贴金额有效地提高了疫苗接种水平.
- 降低相对疫苗接种成本并不会在固定补贴预算下增加疫苗接种水平.
- 在覆盖疫苗接种成本的固定补贴预算下,政策优势决定了结果:部分抵消导致下降,免费补贴增加,并存维持水平.
结论:
- 由强化学习驱动的适应性补贴政策在塑造疫苗接种动态方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 政策设计,特别是总补贴金额和战略,对于有效的疫苗接种活动至关重要.
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