空间时间干旱分析和未来风险评估使用多指数遥感方法和基于趋势的混合预测建模
Ahmet Batuhan Polat1, Egehan Alumert2, Ozgun Akcay2
1Faculty of Engineering, Geomatics Engineering, Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, 17020, Türkiye. abpolat@comu.edu.tr.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|January 12, 2026
概括
这项研究通过远程传感在20年内评估了Çanakkale省的干旱情况. 预测显示干旱风险日益增加,强调了地中海生态系统需要气候适应战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
- 气候变化 气候变化
背景情况:
- 干旱对地中海生态系统构成重大威胁,影响水资源和农业.
- 了解干旱的时空动态对于有效的区域规划和适应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为土耳其的Çanakkale省从2005年到2024年进行全面的时空干旱评估.
- 开发2025-2027年干旱预测风险建模.
- 为水资源管理和气候适应战略提供关键见解.
主要方法:
- 通过谷歌地球引擎利用多指数遥感方法.
- 衍生的规范差异植被指数 (NDVI),土地表面温度 (LST),标准降水指数 (SPI) 和土壤湿度状况指数 (SMCI).
- 整合了多个卫星数据源,并采用了主要组件分析,用于整合干旱指数和混合预测框架.
主要成果:
- 揭示了显著的气候变化,与跨年LST波动和SPI和SMCI的负面趋势.
- 在植被动态和降水模式中确定了空间异质性.
- 预计复合干旱风险的系统升高,表明持续的中高干旱脆弱性.
结论:
- 这项研究为Çanakkale省提供了强大的时空干旱评估和风险预测.
- 这些发现凸显了地中海生态系统日益加剧的干旱压力.
- 结果对于为区域水资源管理,农业规划和气候适应措施提供信息至关重要.
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