在养老院的老年人中构建和验证可逆认知虚弱的预测模型
Yi Zhao1, Ruiyang Guo1, Jiajun Sai1
1School of Nursing, Dalian Medical University, Liaoning, 116044, China.
BMC geriatrics
|January 13, 2026
概括
这项研究开发了一种可逆性认知虚弱的预测模型,用于养老院居民. 该模型表现良好,有助于老年人早期发现和干预.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 认知科学 认知科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 认知虚弱在老年人群中越来越令人担忧.
- 识别可逆性认知虚弱对于老年人及时干预至关重要.
- 养老院居民是脆弱群体,需要特别注意认知健康.
研究的目的:
- 确定与养老院居民可逆性认知虚弱相关的关键因素.
- 开发和验证可逆性认知虚弱的预测风险模型.
- 支持机构住院老年人的早期检测和干预策略.
主要方法:
- 研究对来自中国宁省五家养老院的311名老年人进行了研究.
- 数据被随机分为培训 (80%) 和验证 (20%) 组.
- 后勤回归和列线图模型用于分析和预测.
主要成果:
- 27.7%的参与者 (86例) 呈现可逆性认知虚弱.
- 预测模型取得了良好的表现,AUC为0.852 (培训) 和0.805 (验证).
- 合适性测试 (霍斯默-莱梅斯秀) 显示了满意的模型校准 (P > 0.05).
结论:
- 开发的风险预测模型显示了对可逆性认知虚弱的强大预测能力.
- 这种工具可以帮助养老院工作人员提供早期警告和有针对性的干预.
- 有效的风险预测有助于在机构住院的老年人中积极管理认知健康.
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