游戏未知:通过严的游戏学习区分和应对不确定性
Wout Jan-Willem Sommerauer1, Bregje van der Bolt1, Saskia Werners1,2
1Wageningen University and Research, Earth Systems and Global Change, Wageningen, Netherlands.
npj climate action
|January 13, 2026
概括
严的游戏提高了对气候适应不确定性的理解. 参与者学会了青灵活的策略,欣赏环境因素之外的各种风险.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 游戏理论 游戏理论
背景情况:
- 有效的气候适应规划需要全面了解各种不确定性.
- 传统的方法往往难以充分整合这些不确定性的多方面的性质.
研究的目的:
- 调查严游戏在改善参与者对气候适应决策中的不确定性理解方面的有效性.
- 探索如何参与模拟规划挑战影响战略偏好.
主要方法:
- 采用混合方法的方法,利用前后调查和汇报会议.
- 55名大学生参加了一个适应路径游戏,模拟了五十年的区域规划,包括破坏性事件.
主要成果:
- 参与者扩大了对不确定性的理解,超越了环境和机构因素,包括政治,动态和实施挑战.
- 观察到,人们更喜欢灵活,有弹性的策略,而不是严格的场景优化.
- 政治动荡引发了比环境冲击更强烈的参与者反应,突出了所感知的影响.
结论:
- 严的游戏可以培养对适应规划中的不确定性复杂性的更深层次的认识.
- 关于不确定性类型的认知学习促进了对更具适应性和弹性策略的规范性转变.
- 利益相关者可以从严的游戏中受益,以开发适应性方法,在不确定性下保持多个选择.
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