加快出生时间以获得现金转账? 来自极度贫困家庭的证据
Pedro Carneiro1, Lucy Kraftman2, Imran Rasul3
1UCL, IFS, CEMMAP, United Kingdom.
Journal of health economics
|January 13, 2026
概括
在尼日利亚,用于幼儿发展的现金转移计划并没有显著改变出生时间. 妇女对资金和企业投资机会的控制,阻止了为现金利益而加速分娩.
科学领域:
- 发展经济学是发展经济学.
- 公共卫生干预措施 公共卫生干预措施
- 孕产妇和儿童的健康
背景情况:
- 全球对扶贫现金转移计划的兴趣日益增加.
- 越来越多地关注儿童早期发展干预措施.
- 需要了解这些程序的潜在意外后果.
研究的目的:
- 调查为孕妇开放招生现金转账计划是否会影响非孕妇加快分娩时间.
- 评估无条件现金转移对尼日利亚北部农村地区怀孕时间的影响.
主要方法:
- 对尼日利亚北部农村孕妇的开放招生,无条件现金转账计划的评估.
- 在四年时间内,在基线时对1700名非怀孕妇女怀孕时间的分析.
- 使用了45个人口和健康调查 (DHS) 来进行外部有效性评估.
主要成果:
- 在四年开放招生期间观察到对怀孕时间的相对较弱的扭曲效应.
- 妇女保留对现金转账和投资机会的控制权,在他们的企业中减轻了加速分娩时间的激励.
- 外部有效性分析根据类似计划可能出现出生时间扭曲的可能性对国家进行了分类.
结论:
- 妇女代理和生产性投资机会可以抵消家庭对操纵出生时间进行现金转移的激励.
- 现金转移计划的设计,特别是关于女性对资金的控制,对于防止意外的人口影响至关重要.
- 这些发现对全球设计有效和无意后果减轻的社会保护和幼儿发展计划有影响.
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