整合土地使用动态和人类健康风险:使用PLUS和可解释AI进行未来城市热量暴露的多尺度评估
Yiwen Zhu1, Yi Zhu2, Xun Liang3
1School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430078, Hubei Province, China.
Journal of environmental management
|January 13, 2026
概括
城市热岛 (UHIs) 由于城市化而加剧. 这项研究使用了PLUS和SHAP模型,发现较小规模的土地利用模式显著影响UHI,城市地区增加热量,而水提供冷却效益.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是一个地理信息系统.
背景情况:
- 城市热岛 (UHIs) 由于快速城市化而构成重大环境挑战,增加了城市居民暴露于热的风险.
- 之前的研究已经确定了土地使用和超高水平影响之间的联系,但对多层面土地使用影响的定量评估是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估多种土地使用类型对城市热岛在各种空间尺度上的不同影响.
- 在不同的土地使用场景下,使用综合建模方法预测未来的UHI模式.
- 为了确定土地利用对UHI强度的影响的最佳空间尺度.
主要方法:
- 采用了与夏普利添加式拓展 (SHAP) 方法集成的补丁生成土地利用模拟 (PLUS) 模型.
- 在中国武汉实施了该框架,以在多个空间尺度上分析土地使用对UHI强度的影响.
- 进行了从2005年到2022年的时间分析,以追踪土地使用变化对UHI的影响.
主要成果:
- 在390米或更低的尺度上,土地使用模式对UHI强度有显著的影响;细微的效应最小.
- 水体提供大量的冷却,但它们的效果随着距离的增长而迅速减弱. 植被冷却受到碎片化的限制.
- 时间分析显示,从2005年到2022年,水的缓解效应下降 (-7.6%) 和城市地区加剧影响的增加 (+10.6%).
结论:
- 加强植被连接,保持城市地区和水体之间的距离,可以有效地减轻UHI的影响.
- 优化土地利用模式和组织可以减少超过一百万人的热暴露.
- 调查结果突出了政策干预措施改善城市热环境的潜力.
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