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美国因非最佳温度而导致的社会脆弱性和死亡率:县级生态分析
Pedro Rafael Vieira de Oliveira Salerno1, Ricardo J Estrada-Mendizabal1, Zhuo Chen2
1Department of Medicine, NYC Health + Hospitals/Elmhurst, Icahn School of Medicine at Mt. Sinai, Queens, NY, USA.
Current problems in cardiology
|January 13, 2026
概括
寒冷的温度导致了大多数美国人的死亡,社会脆弱性加剧了寒冷和热带死亡率. 公共卫生战略应针对脆弱地区.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生研究 公共卫生研究
- 气候变化影响研究 气候变化影响研究
背景情况:
- 非最佳温度对死亡率有很大影响.
- 社会脆弱性是影响健康结果的关键因素.
- 了解温度与死亡率的关系对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化与非最佳温度相关的美国县级死亡率.
- 调查社会脆弱性对温度相关死亡率的改变作用.
主要方法:
- 对1514个美国县 (2000-2020年) 的生态时间序列分析.
- 两阶段建模:特定于县的Poisson模型和元分析以确定最低死亡温度 (MMT).
- 多变量元回归通过社会脆弱性指数 (SVI) 四分位数评估效果修改.
主要成果:
- 全国MMT为22.7°C,与寒冷有关的死亡人数 (每年72,361人) 远远超过与热有关的死亡人数 (每年6,129人).
- 社会脆弱地区的MMT较高,与高温和低温相关的死亡率不成比例.
- 寒冷导致的死亡率为每10万人/年40.1,而热导致的死亡率为每10万人/年3.4.
结论:
- 寒冷的温度是死亡的原因比美国的热量更大.
- 社会脆弱性加剧了极端炎热和极端寒冷的死亡风险.
- 研究结果支持针对弱势群体和地理区域的定制公共卫生干预措施.
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