发展心肌炎的全球终身风险,1990-2021年:从2021年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析
BMJ open
|January 13, 2026
概括
在1990年至2021年期间,心肌炎的全球终身风险从1.33%增加到1.50%. 预计这种趋势将持续下去,这凸显了改善心肌炎早期检测的必要性.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 心血管疾病 心血管疾病
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 根据年龄标准化的发病率为心肌炎风险提供了有限的观点.
- 终身风险提供了更全面的视角,包括人口老龄化和死亡率.
- 了解终身风险对于评估心肌炎的实际负担至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计发生心肌炎的全球终身风险.
- 分析整个地区,年龄组和性别的终身风险趋势和变化.
- 预测未来的心肌炎风险.
主要方法:
- 来自2021年全球疾病负担研究的综合数据的系统分析.
- 从1990年到2021年,包括204个国家和地区.
- 利用非身份化人口数据来计算终身风险,并使用ARIMA模型进行预测.
主要成果:
- 心肌炎的全球终身风险从1990年的1.33%上升到2021年的1.50%.
- 在社会人口指数 (SDI) 高和中高的国家观察到更高的风险.
- 男人,40岁以上的个人和老年女性的终身风险更高.
结论:
- 全球心肌炎的终身风险呈现出一致的上升趋势.
- 在初级保健中,提升早期检测和诊断能力至关重要.
- 持续监测和干预策略是必要的,以应对心肌炎负担的增加.
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