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机器学习模型与SHAP解释对高速公路洪水损坏阻塞原因的比较分析
Bin Li1, Lingyi Wu2, Jian Gao3
1State Key Laboratory of Intelligent Transportation System, Highway Monitoring and Emergency Response Center, Ministry of Transport of China, Beijing, 100029, China.
Scientific reports
|January 13, 2026
概括
这项研究使用先进的机器学习和时间数据增强来增强高速公路洪水损害预测. 降水,温度和道路与河流之间的距离等关键因素显著增加了堵塞风险.
科学领域:
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 高速公路洪水损坏阻塞严重威胁交通运输的弹性.
- 现有的风险评估受到时间模型的限制,数据不平衡和解释能力不佳的影响.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个完整的框架,准确地预测高速公路洪水损坏的阻塞.
- 在风险评估中应对时间演变,数据不平衡和模型可解释性等挑战.
主要方法:
- 对比了三个数据平衡策略:时间序列生成对抗网络 (TimeGAN) 增强,低样本和混合方法.
- 评估了六种机器学习模型,使用夏普利增量扩展 (SHAP) 进行因子贡献分析.
- 综合时间生成,系统模型评估和可解释机制分析.
主要成果:
- 在TimeGAN增强数据上训练的多层感知器模型实现了最高的性能 (F1得分:49.81%,PR-AUC:49.46%).
- 确定了关键的风险驱动因素:每日降水 (>2.8mm),7天有效降水 (EP 7>22mm),温度 (>21°C) 和平均路径距离 (ARSD>0.15km).
- 揭示了高温与大量降水和高EP7相结合显著放大阻塞风险.
结论:
- 拟议的框架提高了高速公路洪水损害阻塞预测的准确性和可靠性.
- 为有针对性的防范洪水损害和增强高速公路系统弹性提供了定量见解.
- 强调可解释的人工智能的重要性,以了解复杂的环境-运输相互作用.
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