对比训练窗口选择方法用于预测非静止时间序列的预测
Fridtjof Petersen1, Jonas M B Haslbeck2,3, Jorge N Tendeiro4
1Department of Psychometrics and Statistics, Faculty of Behavioural and Social Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands.
The British journal of mathematical and statistical psychology
|January 14, 2026
概括
智能手机传感器数据可以被动监测心理症状. 在不同的时间窗口中平均预测可以提高准确性,而不是选择单个窗口,从而增强数字心理健康护理.
科学领域:
- 数字健康数字健康
- 计算精神病学是一种计算精神病学.
- 行为数据科学行为数据科学
背景情况:
- 智能手机通过传感器提供被动监控日常行为.
- 传感器数据与心理症状和情绪相关,可能减少测量负担.
- 预测精神病理学峰值可能使精神卫生保健的及时干预成为可能.
研究的目的:
- 调查训练模型的最佳窗口大小,使用传感器数据来预测心理症状.
- 为了比较各种方法来选择合适的培训窗口大小.
- 评估传感器-症状关系变化的不同速率对预测准确性的影响.
主要方法:
- 进行了一项模拟研究,对传感器数据与心理症状之间的基本关系的变化速度进行了变化.
- 对比了不同的窗口大小选择方法,包括启发式和超级学习方法.
- 评估了在多个窗口中平均预测的预测性能,而不是选择单一的最佳窗口.
主要成果:
- 选择一个单一的最佳训练窗口可能会损害预测的准确性,尤其是随时间变化的关系.
- 在不同的窗口大小中平均预测始终降低了预测错误.
- 拟议的平均化方法在模拟和现实智能手机传感器数据上都表现出有效性.
结论:
- 在传感器数据和心理症状之间存在恒定或固定速率关系的假设往往是无效的.
- 在多个时间窗口中平均预测是一个强大的策略,以提高使用传感器数据的心理健康监测的准确性.
- 这种方法通过提供更可靠的心理状态预测来增强数字心理健康保健的潜力.
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