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Updated: Jan 15, 2026

12:44
Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
8.4K
[基于PLUS-INVEST模型的四川-重庆地区碳库存变化和多场景预测]
Hong-Xiang Chen1, Cun-Lin Xin1, Ning Chen1
1College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou 730070, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|January 14, 2026
概括
土地利用变化对陆地生态系统的碳储量产生重大影响. 综合发展方案优化碳库存,支持四川重庆地区的碳中和目标.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地理 地理 地理 地理.
背景情况:
- 土地使用/覆盖变化 (LUCC) 极大地影响陆地生态系统的碳库存.
- 了解LUCC的作用对于优化土地利用和实现碳峰值和碳中和目标至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟 2000 年至 2020 年四川重庆地区土地使用类型和碳库存的动态变化.
- 评估不同发展场景 (自然发展,生态保护,经济发展,综合发展) 对未来碳库存的影响.
主要方法:
- 从2000年到2020年利用的土地使用数据.
- 整合了PLUS (补丁生成土地利用模拟) 和InVEST (生态系统服务和权衡的综合估值) 模型.
- 根据13个关键驱动因素,建立了四个不同的发展场景.
主要成果:
- 在2000年至2020年期间,草原和耕地面积减少,而林地,建筑用地和水域面积增加. 总碳库存增加了29.71×107,主要是由于耕地和草原转化为森林土地.
- 未来的预测表明,与2020年相比,在所有情景下,碳库存增加.
- 综合发展场景显示了碳储量增强的最大潜力.
结论:
- 综合发展场景被确定为最大限度地提高该地区生态系统碳库存的最佳模式.
- 调查结果为政策制定者提供了关键的见解,以指导土地利用规划,以实现碳中和目标.
- 有效的土地利用策略对于优化生态系统碳库存和缓解气候变化至关重要.
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