[在政策导向的情景下,模拟和预测板溪干谷地区碳储存变化]
Xin Cheng1, Zuo-Lin Xiao1, Lin Dai1
1Chongqing Key Laboratory of GIS Application, College of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 401331, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|January 14, 2026
概括
在潘干谷的政策驱动的土地利用规划有效地制了城市扩张,并促进了碳储存. 这种方法支持生态保护和中国.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地理空间分析的研究.
- 土地使用规划 土地使用规划
背景情况:
- 区域碳储存受到土地利用变化的重大影响.
- 以政策为导向的土地利用变化预测对于优化土地利用和加强碳捕获以实现"双碳"目标至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用PLUS模型模拟板西干谷地区的土地利用变化.
- 构建和评估一个以政策为导向的到2035年土地利用变化情景.
- 在不同的场景下估计和分析碳储存变化.
主要方法:
- 根据"双重评估"和功能区划,划定适合和不适合城市建设的区域.
- 使用PLUS模型进行土地使用变化模拟.
- 碳储存的空间自相关性分析.
主要成果:
- 显而易见的空间模式出现了:潘西西部优先考虑生态保护,而中央地区专注于农业和城市发展.
- 以政策为导向的情景有效地制了到2035年的建筑用地扩张,与自然发展情景相比,增加了森林和耕地.
- 根据以政策为导向的情景 (6,517.22×105),预计2035年的碳储存量将高于自然发展情景 (6,494.75×105),而自然发展情景 (6,494.75×105) 从2020年开始显示下降.
结论:
- 政策干预在生态土地保护和减轻土地利用变化对碳储存的负面影响方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 这些发现支持"天府第二谷仓"的发展,以及在该地区实施"碳峰值和碳中和"战略.
- 碳储存的空间分布呈现出明显的模式,高价值区域分散,低价值区域集中在河流沿线.
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