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[基于PLUS-地质探测器模型的Chishui河流域 (云南部分) 土地使用驱动分析和未来发展预测]

Jian-Zhong Li¹, Yun-Mei Li^1,2, Yan-Hong Yu³

¹Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education, School of Geography, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023, China.

Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue

|January 14, 2026

概括

在Chishui河流域的土地利用从1985年到2020年发生了转变,由于道路和斜坡,建筑区扩大. 未来的场景显示了土地使用的多样性,强调对长江流域的生态保护.

科学领域:

环境科学环境科学
地理地理地理地理.
生态生态学生态生态学

背景情况:

长江流域的生态保护和高质量的发展是国家优先事项.
清水河是主要的支流,对长江上游地区的区域生态安全至关重要.
了解土地使用动态对于地方规划和更广泛的长江流域生态战略至关重要.

研究的目的:

从1985年到2020年,分析Chishui河流域 (云南部分) 的时空空间土地利用变化.
确定这些土地使用变化背后的驱动因素.
预测到2035年,根据各种发展情景 (自然,生态保护,农田保护) 预测未来的土地使用趋势.

主要方法:

利用了Landsat卫星图像 (1985-2020年) 和现场调查数据 (2022-2023年).
员工监督的分类用于土地使用数据的获取和空间时间动态的分析.
应用了PLUS和Geodetector模型来对驱动因素和未来土地使用预测进行定量分析.

主要成果:

土地使用趋势 (1985-2020年) 包括耕地波动,草原稳定,森林/灌木增加,水体稳定,建筑用地持续增长.
建筑土地的扩张是由道路和斜坡的邻近推动的,行政中心的距离是最关键的;自然环境和可访问性之间的协同作用是显著的.
未来土地使用预测因场景而异:自然发展增加了建筑/水域,生态保护有利于生态土地,农田保护导致耕地扩张.

结论:

齐河流域的土地利用模式表现出显著的时空变化,受到自然和人为因素的影响.
不同的发展场景预测了未来不同的土地使用分布,突出了定制规划的必要性.
优先考虑生态保护和可持续发展对于奇河流域至关重要,为更广泛的长江流域和生态敏感地区提供教训.

关键词:

地质探测器地质探测器这是一个PLUS模型.驱动力是驱动力的驱动力.土地使用变化土地使用变化多场景模拟多场景模拟

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