印度梨适合性区域的气候驱动转变:从合奏建模和利基超大体积的洞察力
Karunakaran G1, Manish Mathur2, Kanupriya C1
1Division of Fruit Crops, ICAR-Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India.
PloS one
|January 14, 2026
概括
印度的梨种植可以在温和的气候变化下向北扩张和到更高的海拔地区,但高排放可能会导致碎片化. 适应气候变化的农林规划对于可持续的梨生产至关重要.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候变化 生态学 生态学
- 地理空间分析的研究.
背景情况:
- 印度的梨种植正在扩大,但仅限于南部州,需要了解气候变化下的生态要求.
- 关于影响不同印度农业气候区梨适应性的生物气候和非生物气候因素的知识有限.
- 气候变化对现有和潜在的种植区构成风险,需要农业林业的适应性战略.
研究的目的:
- 确定影响梨在印度适合性的关键因素.
- 在各种气候变化情景 (RCP) 下建模当前和未来的梨分布.
- 评估利基动态,并为适应气候变化的农林规划提供信息.
主要方法:
- 集合物种分布建模 (ESDM) 集成八个机器学习算法.
- 利用了35个事件记录和高分辨率的环境数据.
- 分析了2050年和2070年的四个代表性度途径 (RCP) 的利基动态.
主要成果:
- 模型性能强 (AUC:0.86-0.91),其中Random Forest和Maxent表现出色.
- 主要预测因素包括同热度,最冷月份的最低温度和最冷季度的降水.
- 目前的热点在喀拉拉邦和泰米尔纳德邦;未来的预测显示,在RCP 2.6和6.0下可能会向北/海拔扩张,但在RCP 8.5.5下会分散.
结论:
- 在低至中等排放条件下,梨种植的扩张是可行的,取决于热和降水稳定性.
- 高排放场景 (RCP 8.5) 可能会导致利基收缩和迁移,增加种植不稳定性.
- 这些发现为气候智能梨生产,保护和政策提供了地理空间基础,倡导气候避难所保护和适应性战略.
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