患有远端下肢骨折的患者中慢性术后疼痛的危险因素和预测:队列分析
Yangzi Zhu1,2,3,4, Ying Wu1,2, Kailun Gao1,2
1From the Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Anesthesiology, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou, China.
Anesthesia and analgesia
|January 14, 2026
概括
慢性术后疼痛 (CPSP) 在骨折修复后影响许多患者. 这项研究开发了一个预测模型,以早期识别高风险患者,改善疼痛管理和生活质量.
科学领域:
- 整形外科手术 整形外科手术
- 治疗疼痛的药物 治疗疼痛的药物
- 在医疗保健中的数据科学.
背景情况:
- 慢性术后疼痛 (CPSP) 是骨折修复后的一个重要问题,影响生活质量.
- 患有远端下肢骨折的年轻患者在CPSP方面缺乏研究.
- 预测模型是早期检测和个性化疼痛管理所需的.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于早期识别患有CPSP风险的患者的预测模型.
- 为临床使用创建一个基于网络的风险计算器.
主要方法:
- 收集了来自818名患者的住院记录和1年的随访数据.
- 采用了三阶段的建模方法:LASSO回归,信息获取和后勤回归.
- 验证了模型并使用Shinyapps.io.io开发了一个基于Web的预测名录.
主要成果:
- 38.4%的患者经历了CPSP; 18.2%的人患有神经病痛.
- 确定了CPSP的6个独立预测因素,包括止痛技术和NRS分数.
- 通过良好的校准,实现了高的预测准确性 (AUC 0.872开发,0.838验证).
结论:
- 疼痛管理,手术技术和心理因素影响了CPSP的发展.
- 一个集成机器学习的预测名录可以在放药时识别早期的CPSP风险.
- 该工具提高了过渡性疼痛治疗干预措施的可访问性.
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