预测太阳周期25日的太阳黑子数量,使用facebook先知模型
H I Abdel Rahman1, W A Badawy2
1Astronomy Department, National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Helwan, Cairo, 11421, Egypt.
Scientific reports
|January 14, 2026
概括
FB Prophet模型准确预测太阳周期太阳黑子数量,预测太阳周期25将在2025年初达到峰值,太阳周期26在2034年中期达到峰值. 这个太阳活动预测工具显示高精度,确定系数为89.23%.
科学领域:
- 太阳物理 太阳物理
- 天文学 天文学
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析.
背景情况:
- 太阳周期或太阳磁性活动周期是太阳活动的11年周期变化,以太阳黑子数标记.
- 太阳能周期25开始于2019年12月,预计将在2030年12月结束.
- 准确的太阳周期预测对于了解太空天气及其影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 使用FB Prophet模型预测太阳黑子数量,用于剩余的太阳周期25和整个太阳周期26.
- 评估FB Prophet模型用于预测太阳活动的有效性和适用性.
主要方法:
- 在276.25年的太阳黑子数据 (1749年1月至2025年3月) 上使用了FB先知预测模型.
- 为太阳周期25的下半年和太阳周期26的早期部分 (到2036年) 生成了预测.
- 使用确定系数 (R2) 评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 预计太阳周期25在2025年初达到峰值,太阳周期26在2034年中期达到峰值,两者均以大约118的光滑太阳黑子数量达到峰值.
- 获得了89.23%的确定系数 (R2),表明预测准确度很高.
- 模型预测与NOAA公布的周期25预测数据之间有良好的一致性.
结论:
- FB Prophet模型是有效的,适合预测太阳黑子活动和太阳周期进展.
- 该模型的高R2值证实了其对太阳磁活动的强大预测准确性.
- 预报提供了对未来太阳周期的宝贵见解,有助于太空天气准备.
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