对顺序逻辑回归和机器学习模型进行比较研究,用于预测孟加拉国的妇女营养不良:来自BDHS 2022年的证据
Umme Kulsum1, Ahsanul Haque1, Pallab Barai1
1Department of Statistics and Data Science, University of Barishal, Barishal, 8254, Bangladesh.
机器学习模型在预测孟加拉妇女营养不良方面明显优于传统方法. 这些先进的技术为针对营养不良和营养过剩的有针对性的公共卫生干预提供了更高的准确性.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生和流行病学
- 生物统计学和数据科学
- 妇女健康 妇女健康
背景情况:
- 营养不良,包括营养不良和营养过剩,是孟加拉国的关键公共卫生问题,不成比例地影响生育年龄的妇女.
- 现有的统计模型提供了洞察力,但可能缺乏有效干预策略所需的预测能力.
- 准确识别营养不良的决定因素对于制定有针对性的公共卫生计划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 确定孟加拉国15-49岁妇女营养不良的关键决定因素.
- 将机器学习算法的预测性能与用于分类女性营养不良状态的顺序逻辑回归进行比较.
- 评估先进数据科学技术在应对营养方面的公共卫生挑战中的实用性.
主要方法:
- 利用了2022年孟加拉国人口和健康调查 (BDHS 2022) 中的8728名已婚妇女 (15-49岁) 的数据.
- 与六个机器学习算法 (随机森林,XGBoost,SVM,天真贝叶斯,AdaBoost,MLP) 与顺序逻辑回归 (OLR) 进行比较.
- 使用SMOTE用于类不平衡,分层k-fold交叉验证,以及包括精度,精度,回忆,F1分数,科恩卡帕和AUC在内的指标用于模型评估.
主要成果:
- OLR确定了年龄,划分,居住地,财富指数,母乳养状态,丈夫的教育,就业和第一次结婚时的年龄作为重要的预测因素,但只达到49%的准确性.
- 机器学习模型的表现大大超过了OLR,随机森林和XGBoost获得了最高的测试准确率 (64%),随机森林达到66.2%的准确率 (10倍CV).
- 随机森林表现出卓越的表现,宏观平均F1得分为0.64,表明其分类能力比OLR更好.
结论:
- 与传统的OLR相比,机器学习模型,特别是Random Forest和XGBoost,在孟加拉国对妇女营养不良的预测准确度要高得多.
- 虽然OLR提供了可解释性,但ML模型对于精确的分类更有效,有助于识别有风险的个体.
- 结果支持在公共卫生中使用ML来优先考虑资源,并制定有针对性的营养计划,以打击营养不良和营养过剩.
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