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黄热病病毒的溢出风险被亚马逊森林城市界面所放大
Andrew J MacDonald1, Terrell J Sipin1, Kacie Ring2
1Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
Biology letters
|January 15, 2026
概括
土地利用的变化,特别是城市扩张到森林,增加了黄热病病毒 (YFV) 在亚马逊蔓延到人类的风险. 森林碎片化本身并不能预测人类YFV感染.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 动物传染性溢出事件,如黄热病病毒 (YFV) 从野生动物传播到人类,由于环境变化而增加.
- 土地利用变化是主要的驱动因素,改变息地和增加人与野生动物的相互作用,这可以促进病原体的传播.
研究的目的:
- 调查土地利用变化的影响,特别是森林丧失和碎片化,对黄热病病毒 (YFV) 在亚马逊蔓延到人类的影响.
- 确定推动YFV在人野生动物界面传播的关键土地利用因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了20年来来自巴西,秘鲁和哥伦比亚的市级YFV病例数据.
- 使用高分辨率的年度土地覆盖数据和面板回归模型来分析森林碎片化,森林-城市接口和YFV溢出之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 森林碎片化指标不是人类YFV溢出的一致预测指标.
- 森林与城市地区的接近 (森林与城市的接口) 是人类YFV感染的显著积极预测因素.
- 虽然碎片化可能会影响野生动物的传播,但森林边界的城市扩张会增加人类溢出风险.
结论:
- 亚马逊森林地区的城市侵占大大增加了黄热病病毒传播到人类群体的风险.
- 有效的YFV预防策略必须考虑城市扩张和人野生动物界面的影响,而不仅仅是森林碎片化.
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