实现烟草控制目标的挫折:时间趋势分析和2030年的预测
Deborah Carvalho Malta1, Crizian Saar Gomes2, Laís Santos de Magalhães Cardoso2
1Departamento de Enfermagem Materno-infantil e Saúde Pública, Escola de Enfermagem, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Av. Prof. Alfredo Balena 190, Santa Efigênia. 30130-100 Belo Horizonte MG Brasil. dcmalta@gmail.com.
Ciencia & saude coletiva
|January 15, 2026
概括
巴西成年人吸烟消费量从2006年到2023年大幅下降. 然而,这一下降速度已经放缓,预测表明,2030年的反烟草政策目标将会被错过.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 卫生政策分析 卫生政策分析
背景情况:
- 烟草消费仍然是全球和巴西的重大公共卫生问题.
- 监测消费趋势和评估烟草控制政策对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析2006年至2023年巴西首都成年人吸烟消费的趋势.
- 预测到2030年未来的烟草使用率.
- 根据消费趋势和预测,评估目前的反烟草政策的有效性.
主要方法:
- 采用了2006-2023年巴西国家健康调查 (Vigitel) 的数据.
- 雇员结合点回归模型用于对吸烟率的趋势分析.
- 应用指数级平滑模型来预测到2030年的流行预测.
主要成果:
- 总体而言,成年人吸烟率从2006年的15.7%下降到2023年的9.3% (年平均百分比变化: -3.3%).
- 这种下降趋势在大多数社会人口统计学群体中是一致的,戈亚尼亚是稳定流行的一个例外.
- 在2015年之后,流行率下降的显著放缓或停滞被观察到.
- 预测显示,到2030年,患病率将达到7.96%,远低于40%的减肥目标 (预计为6.24%).
结论:
- 尽管总体下降,但最近的趋势表明,反烟草政策的影响正在减弱.
- 根据目前的轨迹,巴西不太可能实现其2030年烟草减少目标.
- 需要紧急重新评估和扩大烟草控制战略,以扭转观察到的停滞和实现公共卫生目标.
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