预测土耳其脏替代疗法的未来负担,使用国家注册数据和比较建模方法
Arzu Akgül1, Neriman Sıla Koç1, Berrak Itır Aylı2
1Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Nephrology, Ankara Etlik City Hospital, Ankara, Türkiye.
概括
土耳其对置换疗法的需求正在上升,预计到2035年将大幅增加. 慢性病趋势的预测建模对于医疗保健规划和资源配置至关重要.
科学领域:
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 卫生经济学 卫生经济学
背景情况:
- 慢性病 (CKD) 患病率在全球范围内不断增加,推动对置换疗法的需求.
- 土耳其面临着越来越多的RRT发病率和流行率,需要对未来需求进行预测.
- 在土耳其,缺乏国家级的RRT需求预测,阻碍了积极的医疗保健规划.
研究的目的:
- 预测土耳其脏替代疗法 (RRT) 的未来负担.
- 使用国家数据建模历史的RRT发病率和流行趋势.
- 根据人口变化,预测到2035年的RRT需求.
主要方法:
- 分析国家RRT注册数据 (2012-2024) 和土耳其统计局人口预测 (到2035年).
- 开发和比较四个不同的RRT发病率和流行率模型.
- 模型验证使用leave-one-out交叉验证和来自日本和英国的外部数据.
主要成果:
- 预计在未来十年内,土耳其的RRT发病率将持续上升.
- 据估计,到2035年,土耳其的RRT患病率将达到每百万人口中的1150-1250人.
- 模型显示出良好的匹配和内部一致性,在机器学习流行模型中注意到一些过度匹配.
结论:
- 预计到2035年,土耳其的全国RRT需求将继续增加.
- 将预测建模集成到国家注册表中可以优化RRT服务的容量规划和资源分配.
- 预防和减缓CKD进展的公共卫生举措对于管理不断升级的末期病负担至关重要.
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