在英格兰和苏格兰使用横向流量测试估计COVID-19的发病率和流行率,2023-2024年
Martyn Fyles1, Jonathon Mellor2, Robert S Paton2
1Infectious Disease Modelling Team, Modelling Division, Chief Data Officer Group, UK Health Security Agency, London, UK. Martyn.Fyles@ukhsa.gov.uk.
Nature communications
|January 16, 2026
概括
冬季冠状病毒感染调查 (WCIS) 使用侧流装置 (LFD) 测试来估计英格兰和苏格兰的COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) 发病率和流行率. 开发了统计方法来调整LFD测试假阴性,使得可靠的监控.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 传染病监测 传染病监测 传染病
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 特别是冬季,SARS-CoV-2仍然是一个重大的公共卫生问题.
- 社区流行调查对于监测感染水平至关重要.
- 之前的调查依赖于高成本的聚合酶链反应 (PCR) 测试.
研究的目的:
- 评估英格兰和苏格兰的COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) 社区感染水平.
- 评估侧流装置 (LFD) 测试在大规模传染病监测中的有用性.
- 开发统计方法,使用LFD测试对发病率和流行率进行可靠估计.
主要方法:
- 冬季冠状病毒 (COVID-19) 感染调查 (WCIS) 利用LFD测试在英格兰和苏格兰进行社区测试 (2023年11月 - 2024年3月).
- 实施了重复测试设计,以估计关键的流行病学参数.
- 开发了统计模型,以调整LFD测试固有的随时间变化的虚假阴性率.
主要成果:
- WCIS每两周提供一次SARS-CoV-2社区感染水平的估计.
- 统计方法成功地调整了LFD测试的不准确性,使得可靠的发病率和流行率估计.
- 推断被按年龄组,位置和性别分层,提供了详细的见解.
结论:
- WCIS的设计克服了以前的流行研究的局限性.
- 当LFD测试与适当的统计调整相结合时,是传染病监测的成本效益高的工具.
- 这种方法证明了使用LFD测试用于持续的公共卫生监测的可行性.
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