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整合基于森林的随机回归分析,分析干旱和半干旱地区降雨的空间变化
Marwa Manaf1, Zulfiqar Ali2, Miklas Scholz3
1College of Statistical Sciences, University of the Punjab, Quaid-e-Azam Campus, Lahore, Punjab, 54590, Pakistan.
随机森林回归造 (RF-RK) 有效地插入了巴基斯坦的降雨空间变化. 这种机器学习方法捕捉了复杂的模式,改善了数据稀缺地区的水资源管理和气候适应.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 地理空间分析是什么?
- 气候科学是气候科学.
背景情况:
- 了解空间降水变化对于水资源管理至关重要,尤其是在干旱地区.
- 传统的地理统计方法与非线性降雨空间关系作斗争.
- 机器学习与回归 kriging (ML-RK) 集成显示出复杂的空间模式的希望.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较各种ML-RK方法,使用度和经度进行空间间位测量降水量.
- 为了评估随机森林,支持向量机,K-最近邻居,神经网络,弹性网和多项式回归的性能,结合RK.
- 评估不同波形图模型在空间结构分析中的有效性.
主要方法:
- 从巴基斯坦的42个站点 (2001-2021) 中利用了每月和每十年的平均降水量.
- 我们比较了6种ML-RK组合:RF-RK,SVM-RK,KNN-RK,NN-RK,EN-RK和PR-RK.
- 雇员休假一次性交叉验证,以测试四种变量图模型 (指数式,圆形,球形,线性) 并使用RMSE和MAE评估绩效.
主要成果:
- 随机森林回归造 (RF-RK) 始终优于所有其他ML-RK组合.
- 集合学习方法有效地捕捉了非线性降雨空间关系和空间依赖.
- 该研究确定了空间结构评估的最佳变量图模型.
结论:
- RF-RK是复杂异质性区域的空间降水插曲的优越方法.
- 由RF-RK生成的高分辨率降雨地图可以显著帮助气候适应规划和水资源管理.
- 这种方法对像巴基斯坦这样的数据稀缺地区尤为有价值.
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