通过CA-Markov框架对土耳其的土地利用和土地覆盖变化的时空模拟
1Faculty of Forestry, Department of Forest Engineering, Karadeniz Technical University, Trabzon, Turkey. nuribozali@ktu.edu.tr.
Scientific reports
|January 16, 2026
概括
在2001-2025年期间,乌鲁贝区的森林面积减少了13.82%. 预测显示森林持续减少,农业和水域面积增加,影响土地利用动态.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地理信息系统 (GIS) 是指地理信息系统.
- 遥感 遥感 遥感 遥感
背景情况:
- 土地使用和土地覆盖 (LULC) 动态对于区域规划和环境管理至关重要.
- 了解LULC历史变化和预测未来趋势对于可持续发展至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析土耳其乌萨克省乌鲁贝区的历史和预测LULC变化.
- 利用数字森林群地图,GIS和CA-Markov模型进行LULC分析和预测.
- 为森林规划人员和管理人员提供有关土地使用动态的见解.
主要方法:
- 使用CA-马尔科夫模型进行LULC变化分析和预测.
- 分析了2001年,2013年和2025年的LULC数据,并对2037年和2049年的预测进行了分析.
- 使用相似率 (83.7%),整体准确率 (86.7%) 和卡帕统计 (0.848) 验证了CA-马尔科夫模型.
主要成果:
- 在2001年至2025年期间,森林总面积减少了13.82% (3290.4公).
- 在定居点 (68.00%) 和水域 (424.89%) 地区观察到显著增加.
- 预计的未来趋势包括持续的森林面积减少和农业和水体的增加.
结论:
- CA-马尔科夫模型有效地模拟了区域规划中的LULC动态.
- 迫切需要保护和管理战略,以减轻森林覆盖面的损失.
- LULC模拟有助于对森林类型进行分类,并支持可持续土地管理的知情决策.
相关概念视频
Levels of Use of a GIS
366
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) operate across three levels of application, each representing an increasing degree of complexity: data management, analysis, and prediction. These levels reflect the expanding functionality and versatility of GIS technology in handling spatial data for diverse purposes.Data ManagementAt its foundational level, GIS serves as a tool for data management, enabling the input, storage, retrieval, and organization of spatial data. This level is often employed in...
366
Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment
286
Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
286
Growth Models with Integration: Problem Solving
23
In population modeling, integration provides a systematic way to determine accumulated quantities from known rates of change. One such application arises in ecology, where the total weight of a fish population in a body of water is referred to as its biomass. When the rate of growth of this biomass is known as a function of time, calculus can be used to determine the total biomass at a future date.Growth Rate and Biomass FunctionLet the growth rate of the fish population be represented by a...
23
Manipulation and Analysis
292
GIS manipulation and analysis functions are vital for decision-making and planning. These activities range from data retrieval tasks, such as selecting information based on specific criteria, to advanced analytical techniques that address complex spatial problems.One critical GIS analysis method is overlaying, which combines multiple data layers to examine impacts. For example, overlaying a river-dammed lake boundary with road networks can identify affected infrastructure. Another common...
292
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Individual and Population Analysis
250
Mechanistic models are utilized in individual analysis using single-source data, but imperfections arise due to data collection errors, preventing perfect prediction of observed data. The mathematical equation involves known values (Xi), observed concentrations (Ci), measurement errors (εi), model parameters (ϕj), and the related function (ƒi) for i number of values. Different least-squares metrics quantify differences between predicted and observed values. The ordinary least...
250
Global Climate Change
28.7K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
28.7K


