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估计流感传播参数:比较两个研究设计,2023-2024年

Jessica E Biddle¹, Stacey House², Jennie H Kwon³

¹Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA, USA.

|January 17, 2026

概括

索引病例访谈低估了家庭中的流感感染. 系统的每日随访测试对于准确的流感传播数据和公共卫生反应至关重要.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
传染病的动态传染病的动态.
公共卫生监督公共卫生监督

背景情况:

家庭研究对于了解流感传播至关重要.
准确的传播参数对于模拟流行病和大流行病至关重要.
有效的流感控制策略依赖于可靠的数据.

研究的目的:

为了比较两种估计家庭流感传播参数的方法.
为了评估指数病例采访与系统的每日随访.
评估研究设计对检测流感感染和疾病的影响.

主要方法:

在2023-2024年美国流感季节的指数病例访谈 (n=1537) 和系统的每日随访 (n=857) 数据的比较.
评估症状性疾病,类似流感的疾病 (ILI) 和实验室确认的流感病毒感染.
分析家庭接触者之间的连续疾病发病间隔.

主要成果:

系统的每日跟踪检测到59%的接触者有症状疾病,而采访时只有40%.
在44%的接触者中,通过每日随访确定了实验室确认的流感,而通过面试确定了12%.
这两种方法均产生了4天的中位数序列间隔.
类似流感的疾病的检测是可比的 (26%对20%).

结论:

索引病例采访是资源高效的,但显著低估了实验室确认的流感病例.
通过实验室测试进行系统的日常跟踪,可以提供更准确的传输数据.
研究设计,特别是包括系统测试,对于准确捕捉流感传播动态至关重要.
准确的数据对于提供有效的公共卫生应对流感的信息至关重要.

关键词:

家庭传输的家庭传输.流感是一次流感.流行病的准备情况.序列间隔的时间间隔.

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