中国儿童中与温度相关的受伤风险和负担的年龄特定差异
Keqing Liang1, Xiao Deng2, Ye Jin2
1Department of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510632, China.
Environmental research
|January 17, 2026
概括
气温上升会增加儿童受伤的风险,特别是对于幼儿来说. 气候变化可能会加重这种负担,交通伤害是年幼儿童的主要担忧.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 儿科伤害流行病学 儿科伤害流行病学
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 儿童受伤是致病率和死亡率的重要原因之一.
- 关于环境温度对儿童受伤的影响的证据有限.
- 了解温度和伤害之间的关联对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化环境温度与中国儿童受伤风险之间的关联 (2006-2021年).
- 在气候变化情景下,预测未来的温度归因于儿童受伤的负担.
- 确定易受伤害的年龄组和受伤类型.
主要方法:
- 利用中国国家伤害监测系统 (2006-2021) 的数据.
- 使用条件后勤回归与分布式滞后非线性模型.
- 分析了按性别,受伤机制和位置分层的关联.
主要成果:
- 温度上升1°C与儿童受伤风险增加1.14%相关.
- 年龄在2至4岁的儿童的脆弱性最高 (1.36%的过度风险每升高1°C).
- 根据SSP5-8.5.5,预计到20世纪90年代,在2至4岁的儿童中,温度可归因的受伤率将从0.58%增加到6.87%,在SSP5-8.5.5下.
结论:
- 环境温度升高显著增加了儿童受伤的风险.
- 较小的儿童 (2-4岁) 特别容易受到与温度相关的伤害.
- 预计气候变化将加剧中国因温度而造成的儿童伤害的负担.
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