在COVID-19疫苗有效性和流行病感染力之间存在关联
Jing Xu1, M Elizabeth Halloran1,2, Mia Moore1
1Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
NPJ vaccines
|January 17, 2026
概括
疫苗疗效 (VE) 和感染力 (FoI) 的关联是复杂的. 个人层面的数据显示了反向的U形关系,VE根据FoI水平和特定疫苗而有所不同.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 疫苗学 疫苗学 疫苗学
- 传染病建模 传染病建模
背景情况:
- 疫苗疗效 (VE) 和感染力 (FoI) 之间的关系尚未完全理解.
- 之前的研究依赖于有限的试验级数据,忽视了时间和地理差异.
研究的目的:
- 利用来自COVID-19疫苗试验的个体级数据调查VE和FoI之间的关联.
- 探索FoI水平如何影响不同疫苗和地理区域的VE.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自三个COVID-19疫苗第三阶段试验 (Moderna,AstraZeneca,Janssen) 的个人级别数据.
- 综合试验数据与地理特定的SARS-CoV-2监测数据 (大流行至2021年11月).
- 进行了五次队列和疫苗特定分析.
主要成果:
- 在美国AstraZeneca疫苗中观察到一个积极的VE-FoI关联 (p=0.01).
- 对于森疫苗总体而言,观察到一个边际的负相关性 (p=0.21).
- 对于Moderna,AstraZeneca整体或美国的Janssen,没有发现显著的VE-FoI关联.
结论:
- VE-FoI关联是复杂的,可能受到FoI大小的影响.
- 研究结果表明,VE和FoI之间存在一个反转的U形关系.
- 在较低水平时,VE可能会随着FoI增加,在较高水平时可能会减少.
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