在具有挑战性的情况下应用人口和流行病学模型:在下多佛古玛雅人中应对小样本规模和复杂的社会政治背景
Saige Kelmelis1, Kira Wilde2, John P Walden3
1Department of Anthropology and Sociology, University of South Dakota, Vermillion, SD 57069, United States; Department of Anthropology, Penn State, University Park, PA 16802, United States.
古人群模型显示,玛雅精英和平民的生存率相似,但童年压力指标,如Cribra Orbitalia,改善了平民的生存率. 这突显了早期生活压力因素对古玛雅人口的影响.
科学领域:
- 古病理学 古病理学
- 古人类学 (paleodemography) 是一种古人类学.
- 玛雅人考古学 玛雅人考古学
背景情况:
- 评估社会政治地位和童年压力对过去人口的健康和生存的影响对于理解社会动态至关重要.
- 由于保存和社会复杂性,玛雅古典时期对此类分析提出了独特的挑战.
研究的目的:
- 证明人口和流行病学模型在分析社会政治地位和童年压力对玛雅古典时期生存率,死亡率和发病率的影响时的实用性.
- 通过将古病理学数据与人口建模相结合,重新评估玛雅古典时期的生活.
主要方法:
- 分析了来自贝利兹下多佛政权 (公元250/300-900/1000年) 的63个精英和平民葬礼.
- 检查与发育性压力相关的病变,特别是cribra orbitalia和线性面膜低成形.
- 应用卡普兰-梅尔和考克斯回归风险分析来评估生存率和死亡率趋势.
主要成果:
- 在15岁以下的个人被排除在外时,社会政治地位组之间没有发现死亡率和发病率的显著差异.
- 在普通人中,患有Cribra Orbitalia的人与没有Cribra Orbitalia的人相比,生存率更高 (p=0.02).
结论:
- 古人群学模型可以有效地阐明早期生活压力因素的影响,即使样本大小小.
- 与推断的地位差异相反,古典时期下多佛的精英和平民经历了类似的生存率.
- 将古病理学数据与人口建模相结合,为古玛雅社会复杂性和童年压力因素的生物影响提供了有价值的见解.
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