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Updated: Jan 20, 2026

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对葡萄牙和波罗的海的污染风险暴露评估,重点是影子舰队

Sabine Knapp¹, Michel van de Velden¹, Philip Hans Franses¹

¹Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands.

Marine pollution bulletin

|January 18, 2026

概括

地缘政治变化增加了航运污染风险,特别是来自波罗的海的影子舰队. 超过54%的风险与观察名单上的船只有关,这突显了紧急的海上安全问题.

科学领域:

海上安全的航行.
环境风险评估环境风险评估
地缘政治与贸易

背景情况:

地缘政治发展对全球航运贸易流和相关风险产生重大影响.
"影子舰队"的出现为监测和管理海洋污染风险带来了新的挑战.

研究的目的:

量化波罗的海地区和葡萄牙因地缘政治事件和影子舰队而导致的污染风险暴露的变化.
评估船舶安全品质,制裁遵守和贸易流变化之间的相关性.
开发一个用于识别和评估影子舰队带来的风险的预测模型.

主要方法:

分析了4520万个全球船队估计,以计算船级潜在事故成本.
使用指定列表和平衡的随机森林预测模型构建影子舰队观察列表.
评估船舶的运行和行为数据,以预测风险和评估安全质量.

主要成果:

在2023年至2024年期间,芬兰湾的污染风险暴露增加了100%以上.
该地区超过54%的污染风险暴露与阴影舰队观察名单上的船只有关,而全球平均水平为16.4%.
据估计,到2024年12月,波罗的海地区估计有6880万美元的风险暴露可能没有保险,占区域总额的9.9%.

结论:

船舶的安全品质与遵守制裁有很强的相关性,影响贸易模式.
该研究强调了波罗的海污染风险暴露的显著增加,主要是由影子舰队推动的.
与实时自动识别系统 (AIS) 数据集成的船舶特定风险预测可以提高沿海国家的海事领域意识.

关键词:

波罗的海,瑞典,葡萄牙,芬兰湾.机器学习机器学习石油污染风险暴露油污污染风险暴露受到制裁的可能性.船舶的风险概况分析.影子舰队的观察名单

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