多民族亚洲人群中心血管疾病风险预测:来自新加坡两个基于人口的队列的证据
Charlie G Y Lim1, Crystal C Y Chong2, Yvonne H M Wong1
1Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore and National University Health System, 12 Science Drive 2, 117549, Singapore.
The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific
|January 19, 2026
概括
对亚洲人群进行心血管疾病 (CVD) 风险预测模型的重新校准提高了准确性. 局部调整的模型,如重新校准的聚合队列方程 (PCE-W),在预测新加坡心血管疾病事件方面显示出比其他模型更好的校准.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 心血管疾病 (CVD) 在亚洲是一个重大的健康挑战.
- 现有的心血管疾病风险评估工具往往需要适应亚洲人口统计.
研究的目的:
- 为亚洲人群重新校准非西班牙裔白人 (PCE-W) 的ACC/AHA聚合队列方程.
- 将重新校准的PCE-W与新加坡其他心血管疾病风险模型的性能进行比较.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自新加坡多民族队列 (MEC1) 和新加坡眼病流行病学 (SEED) 队列的数据.
- 使用MEC1数据重新校准PCE-W,并在SEED.中验证.
- 使用一致性指数 (C指数) 和校准指标进行性能比较.
主要成果:
- 所有评估的模型都显示出有用的歧视 (C指数为0.728-0.811).
- 再校准的PCE-W的性能优于原来的PCE-W.
- 经过重新校准的PCE-W和新加坡修改的弗雷明汉风险评分 (SG-FRS-2023) 显示出比SCORE2亚太地区更好的校准.
结论:
- 当地重新校准的CVD风险预测模型,包括PCE-W和SG-FRS-2023,对亚洲人群有价值.
- 适当的本地重新校准可以提高在不同亚洲族群中对心血管疾病风险评估的准确性.
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