当蚊子数量不足时:登革热在非特有地区爆发
Giulio Pisaneschi1,2, Piero Manfredi3, Alberto Landi1
1Department of Information Engineering, University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy.
One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
|January 19, 2026
概括
登革热疫情可以发生在温带地区,即使蚊子数量较低,基本繁殖数 (R0) 低于1. 来自旅行者的进口病例可能会引发严重的本地传播,挑战传统的风险评估.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 登革热疫情越来越多地出现在热带地区以外的地区,最近在南欧出现的病例突显了温带地区的风险.
- 传统的登革热风险评估通常依赖于蚊子种群的高数量和1以上的基本繁殖数 (R0).
研究的目的:
- 挑战大型登革热爆发需要高R0值的假设.
- 调查进口病例如何在低风险环境中引发本地大量传播.
主要方法:
- 开发一个数学模型,将进口登革热病例和当地蚊子种群纳入其中.
- 在R0低于1的条件下分析传输动态.
主要成果:
- 严重的登革热疫情可能是由感染旅行者的零星引入引发的,不管高R0.
- 罕见的传播事件可能会导致相当大的局部传播,即使蚊子数量和R0低.
结论:
- 目前的登革热风险评估可能不足,因为它只关注固定的入侵值和R0.
- 一个健康的方法,整合人类的旅行,蚊子生态和环境因素,对于理解疾病的出现至关重要.
- 早期预警系统应结合随机建模,人类移动数据和蚊子监测,以便在非流行地区更好地预测疫情.
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