使用ARIMAX和人工神经网络预测伊拉克的CO2排放:一种比较建模方法
Sham Azad Rahim1, Delshad Shaker Ismael Botani2
1Department of Banking and Finance Science, College of Commerce, University of Sulaimani, Sulaimani, Iraq.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|January 19, 2026
概括
准确的二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放预测在伊拉克对于减缓气候变化至关重要. 结合气候数据的混合FNN-RNN模型显著改善了预测,预测到2028年将增加9.18%.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候建模气候模型
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 由于二氧化碳 (CO2) 等温室气体排放导致的气候变化,需要准确的排放预测来制定有效的减缓战略.
- 预测伊拉克的二氧化碳排放,一个受气候变化严重影响的地区,对于区域政策的制定至关重要.
- 传统的时间序列模型经常与气候和排放数据固有的复杂,非线性动态作斗争.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估用于预测伊拉克二氧化碳排放的先进模型.
- 纳入气候变量 (温度,降水) 以提高二氧化碳排放预测的准确性.
- 为了比较传统和先进的机器学习模型在预测二氧化碳排放方面的表现.
主要方法:
- 利用了从1937年到2023年的伊拉克历史二氧化碳排放数据.
- 采用多种预测模型:自回归集成移动平均数与异源变量 (ARIMAX),前神经网络 (FNN),反复神经网络 (RNN) 和混合FNN-RNN模型.
- 纳入温度和降水作为外源变量,以提高模型准确性.
主要成果:
- 混合FNN-RNN模型在关键指标 (R2,MSE,RMSE,MAE) 中显示,其表现优于ARIMAX,FNN和RNN.
- 混合模型表现出稳定的培训和验证损失趋同,表明没有过度拟合的良好概括性.
- 预测预测,在2024年至2028年期间,伊拉克的二氧化碳排放量将大幅增加9.18%,达到2028年的峰值.
结论:
- 混合FNN-RNN模型为预测二氧化碳排放提供了强大而准确的方法,优于传统方法.
- 纳入气候变量显著提高了对二氧化碳排放的预测准确度.
- 调查结果为决策者提供了关键数据,帮助他们设计针对伊拉克的排放控制战略,并为未来关于社会经济因素的研究提供信息.
相关概念视频
10:04A Neural Network-Based Identification of Developmentally Competent or Incompetent Mouse Fully-Grown Oocytes
7.1K
Here, we present a protocol for non-invasive assessment of oocyte developmental competence performed during their in vitro maturation from the germinal vesicle to the metaphase II stage. This method combines time-lapse imaging with particle image velocimetry (PIV) and neural network...
7.1K
13:19Deep Neural Networks for Image-Based Dietary Assessment
9.9K
The goal of the work presented in this article is to develop technology for automated recognition of food and beverage items from images taken by mobile devices. The technology comprises of two different approaches - the first one performs food image recognition while the second one performs food image...
9.9K
07:49Spontaneous Formation and Rearrangement of Artificial Lipid Nanotube Networks as a Bottom-Up Model for Endoplasmic Reticulum
8.3K
Solid-supported, protein-free, double phospholipid bilayer membranes (DLBM) can be transformed into complex and dynamic lipid nanotube networks and can serve as 2D bottom-up models of the endoplasmic...
8.3K
03:31End-To-End Deep Neural Network for Salient Object Detection in Complex Environments
1.0K
The present protocol describes a novel end-to-end salient object detection algorithm. It leverages deep neural networks to enhance the precision of salient object detection within intricate environmental...
1.0K
Visualization of Neural and Vascular Networks in a Chicken Embryo
471
Source: Delalande, J., et.al. Dual Labeling of Neural Crest Cells and Blood Vessels Within Chicken Embryos Using ChickGFP Neural Tube Grafting and Carbocyanine Dye DiI Injection. J. Vis. Exp. (2015)This video demonstrates the transplantation of a GFP-labeled donor neural tube from a stage-matched transgenic chicken embryo into a recipient embryo at the level of somites one to seven, followed by vascular labeling using a lipophilic fluorescent dye. The combined approach allows for direct...
471
10:32Enumeration of Neural Stem Cells Using Clonal Assays
8.8K
Neural stem cells (NSCs) refer to cells which can self-renew and differentiate into the three neural lineages. Here, we describe a protocol to determine NSC frequency in a given cell population using neurosphere formation and differentiation under clonal...
8.8K


