在粮食系统转型期间,欧洲农业的分摊资产在粮食系统转型期间
Anniek J Kortleve1, José M Mogollón2, Helen Harwatt3
1Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, Leiden, the Netherlands. a.j.kortleve@cml.leidenuniv.nl.
减少动物来源食品 (ASF) 消费可能导致欧盟数十亿美元的农业资产流失. 随着时间的推移,逐步淘汰这些资产可以减轻财务风险,并支持可持续的粮食系统.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 可持续的粮食系统 可持续的粮食系统
背景情况:
- 高收入国家因动物来源食品 (ASF) 消费量下降而面临重大财务风险.
- 与ASF相关的资产构成了欧盟27 + 英国的农业固定资产的很大一部分.
研究的目的:
- 量化由于欧盟27 + 英国的ASF消费减少而导致浅资产的财务风险.
- 探索减轻资产分离和支持可持续粮食系统转型的途径.
主要方法:
- 农业和经济数据与全球多区域输入-输出模型的整合.
- 在各种ASF消费减少场景下估计资产分摊百分比.
主要成果:
- 亚美基金资产占欧盟27 + 英国固定农业资产的78% (1580亿欧元的牲畜,1000亿欧元的料).
- 9.5%,60%和100%的ASF削减可能导致这些资产分别为18%,50%和77%.
- 当前的折旧率为逐步淘汰资产提供了时间.
结论:
- 对ASF资产的政策和气候驱动风险是相互关联的,需要综合金融建模.
- 通过政策支持,重新利用或逐步淘汰与ASF相关的资产对于可持续的粮食系统转型至关重要.
- 粮食生产者面临着连锁性浅风险,需要采取积极的战略.
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